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All, that you wished to know about dollar …
Published on July, 19th the chairman of Federal reserve system of the USA (FRS) Ben Bernanke that a situation in sector of hypothecary crediting is could uhudshit, has appeared last and solving blow on stability dollara. At once quotations euro-dollar have tried to be fixed na to it marks above the important level - 1,3830. And not without success have overcome etot an indicator. Then have started to come nearer to value 1,39 persistently. But to reach a new record yet it is not possible - considerable sderzhivajushchee influence on the further strengthening of an euro exchange rate to dollar THE USA rendered some fall of the European currencies in relation to Japanese iene and to the Swiss franc. For last three weeks dollar fairly oslabel in relation to the majority of currencies, some times having updated absoljutnye maxima of an euro exchange rate and long-term maxima of a course of pound sterlingov. We will try to understand, with what it is connected, and to give the forecast otnositelno of the further course parity of two main currencies in mire.
the Reasons
We will begin с statements Bernanke. He has told, that losses of sector hypothecary kreditovanija with a low credit rating can reach borrowers from $50 to 100 billion (!) And to make negative impact on level potrebitelskih of expenses in the USA, and also has hastened to assure of that, that Ф С uskorenno works over strengthening of measures on regulation of this sfery. Ukazannye chairman FRS of figure can seem huge, but they predstavljajut it is insignificant a small share of total amount of means American domohozjajstv which makes $56,2 bln. But the matter is that many investory are afraid, that problems in this sector of economy of the USA are could rasprostranit on other markets of crediting.
American economy in second half of 2007 will develop rather sderzhannymi rates (2,25-2,5 %), and in 2008 rates of growth in the best sluchae will only a little be accelerated (2,5-2,75 %). As to inflation forecasts urovnja in the USA FRS considers, what it should decrease blagodarja a little to the stable prices for energy carriers (I do not understand, on chem osnovyvaetsja this confidence?) And to reduction of pressure from the market truda, but remains an occasion to trouble. Bernanke has declared, that infljatsija for the first 5 months of this year has made 4,4 % in annual vyrazhenii.
That is to opredelennomu dollar exchange rate decrease in relation to euro have resulted three faktora: the most serious problems in sphere of hypothecary crediting (au, ukrainskie the banks giving credits for acquisition of habitation hardly probable not by all without an initial payment of years on 25-30), recession real sektora economy and inflation at level above the expected.
However, prichiny dollar easings are not settled by a parity makroekonomicheskih of indicators of the basic markets. Have played the role and dejstvija the countries - exporters of oil of the OPEC accumulating for many gody appreciable reserves in dollars, and now started to translate them in evro, yens or the British pounds. The similar is observed and in the countries of Asia, imejushchih positive balance in trade from the USA and saved appreciable rezervy. So, about 70 % of reserves of the Peoples Republic of China it is necessary for dollars (in 2004 80 %). Consequence s of these processes start to be felt through quotations dollara to euro and pound sterling. Diversifikatsija reserves- dolgosrochnyj the process which consequences will be stretched in time na many years.
one vazhnejshy More aspect. In 2006 deficiency of the balance of payments of the USA has made 6,6 gross national product %. The further reduction in price of dollar will allow to reduce it. In principle, reduction of deficiency of payment and trading balances, and also udeshevlenie the American actives investments into the USA more privlekatelnymi will make. But for this purpose it is required, that export grew faster importa, that, most likely, means the further decrease in a dollar exchange rate.
Forecasts
We will pass from an explanatory part to prognoznoj. The question on where there will be prices in this or that free market, became already sakramentalnym for huge weight of people, switching on both large biznesmenov, and simple consumers, both traders-speculators, and analysts.
Well known a joke on the given subject. The trader enraged by failures enters in lift on the ground floor and sees there an analyst, whose forecasts on polzuetsja. In hearts it suffices for grudki and exclaims: " Well though teper you can correctly guess, where we will go? ". Analytics from anekdota has carried: the lift has reached " an absolute bottom "and can go only vverh (we will be glad for an analyst - punishment it while passed). On real the business market are much more difficult.
Appear two the cores of the scenario of the further movement of the prices in the euro-dollar. Soglasno market to the first of them, the cycle of falling of dollar and euro growth will end during time, having reached a turn point at level 1,4, and will not fall nizhe level in 1,35. The second scenario considers the stabilisation which has outlined on this nedele as correction of even more active trend on growth evro. Then it can proceed on time from 1 year till 2 years, and tseli a trend can be even above level 1,4, for example, in a zone 1,40-1,42. At a sight of the author, both these of the scenario now have high verojatnost, but I leave certain overweight behind the second, motivating slishkom with fast growth of euro recently, that testifies about sile a trend.
Attempt THE USA to conduct "rejuvenescence " the economy those means, kotorymi vospolzovalas Ukraine after August crisis of 1998, and national currency while success has not brought (though the author ne considers, that our country did it osoznanno - simply tak poluchilos). The only thing America has achieved that, is some uvelichenija export of the goods to Europe. Only thus i udalos to receive though any growth of gross national product. And the internal consumer rynok USA have grown too slightly. And falling of a course of dollar ottolknulo of many investors from placing of the capitals in the market. The high euro exchange rate has forced to flow these capitals in Evropu and to weaken consequences of stagnation of economy of the European countries. Whether ne
On it a background some strategists of economic policy in the USA offer osushchestvit even more radical measures and devalvirovat dollar hardly on 30 %, not realising consequences of similar steps. They forget, that in mire (out of the USA) today has accumulated more than $1,5 bln. which in any moment can be thrown out on the market in case of obvious and scale devalvatsii this currency. It will for ever undermine trust to dollar, and mirovoj goods turnover will pass to stabler currencies, namely to evro. The majority of economists it fine underst and an d will not admit takih sharp rate fluctuations of dollar.
But and the similar situation with smooth falling of dollar too can long proceed ne. All positive effects from decrease in the American currency otnositelno of euro are absorbed by growing outflow of the capital from the USA. The below kurs dollar, the above outflow of these investments.
For THE USA there has now come a time trouble impasse. On the one hand, dalnejshee dollar fall will give more stimulus for economy growth, no with another - all these stimulus of growth will be warmed up naked entuziazmom. Without attraction in the country of new capitals this growth will dutym be. The dollar rate increase also is undesirable, as is fraught spadom in economy and deficiency growth in trade, but without it not to return pritok capitals. What to do? The American government needs - to balance an exit. So, the dollar in predelah from 1,35 to 1,45 will fluctuate. I do not think, that "the corridor " can be more shirokim. Especially in higher from 1,45 party.
Same unpleasant for financial US authorities consists what to adjust situatsiju by means of the key mechanism - rates FRS - practically nevozmozhno. On the one hand, apparently, lift now level stavki, and it will bridle inflation. But with another is will result in decrease in level of industrial production and will aggravate situatsiju in the market of hypothecary crediting. And after all all the same to lift nado - only thus in the conditions of growth of rate European centrobanka and Bank of England it is possible to raise appeal amerikanskih of financial tools. But it is impossible to lift - read vyshe about gross national product and the habitation market.
Tangent Ukraine consequences of change of a course parity dollar-euro we snachala felt Recommendations in euro approach in relation to grivna to a mark 7:1. A since the end of last week and in decrease in a course of purchase of dollar nizhe of a parity 5:1. But it at all does not mean, that it is necessary delat for citizens any sharp movements with the savings. At once I will notice, chto at fluctuations in 1,5-2 % to throw money from one currency in druguju - useless and unprofitable employment: you will lose on konvertatsii more, than will earn. Therefore council the first - in what the sberezhenija (grivnja held, euro, dollar), in that while hold.
Key word in told above - "while ". Unfortunately, it is necessary konstatirovat, that three of four priznakov problems tormenting economy American, were outlined in our economy - deficiency torgovogo of the balance, accruing inflation and not such high, kak ozhidalos, rates of growth of gross national product. While, the truth, hypothecary crisis ne nabljudaetsja. It will manage to avoid, tell How long it difficultly.
From here advice the second: watch macroeconomic indicators. While all problems do not carry critical character, but have tendentsiju to development. In particular, the inflation indicator should call opasenija, if it exceeds (on official data which are always slegka underestimated) 12-13 %. Now (besides official) an indicator menshe of 10 %. Also it is necessary to trace data on trading both to balances and payments on external debts. If in the sum the minus balansov makes 5 % of gross national product, and in respect of payments on an external debt they prevysjat of 25-30 % of an annual export gain (in currency) exporters, budet a powerful occasion to alarm concerning stability of dollar.
Now third council to those Ukrainian enterprises which receive a gain in dollarah, trading th us with an eurozone. Do not do so. Pass on evro. Otherwise you, to put it mildly, it is insufficiently correct in long-term perspektive plan the financial activity.